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User blog:Cfp3157/90th Academy Awards
It's the big nine zero, Oscar- happy birthday. In a year where it was expected to revert back to Oscar So White, the Academy proved to be changing with the world as it broke several records and set new precedents for itself. Since we don't talk about them in this blog, just a congratulations for the following; Rachel Morrison, the first women cinematographer to be nominated ever for Mudbound; Jonny Greenwood, for his first nomination for Original Score for Phantom Thread; Scott Neudstadter and Michael H. Weber, receiving their first nomination for The Disaster Artist; and finally, my personal favorite, the writers of Logan, who became the first nominees for a superhero film in screenplay! With those out of the way, let's begin! The Host Jimmy Kimmel is the host of the Jimmy Kimmel Show, a late night talk show on ABC. He is known for his observational comedy about American politics, culture, and life in general. Kimmel hosted the 89th Academy Awards in 2017, and this will be his second time as host for the award show. Cfp's Thoughts ...As much as I loved Kimmel's show last year, I'm not looking forward to it this year. Kimmel's late night work as suffered in his vast criticisms of President Drumpf, and the opening monologue may prove to be just as blunt and poorly crafted. I hope to be proven wrong, but comparing it to the more subdued and intelligent delivery of Seth Meyers at the Golden Globes or the powerful, inspirational but still entertaining prescence of Kristin Bell at the SAG Awards, Kimmel doesn't have much going forward to help him. Beast's Thoughts I generally like Jimmy Kimmell and found his monologues on stuff like healthcare and the Las Vegas shooting to be really good, but I'm not super into the idea of him hosting twice in a row. For one, I'd like to see some new blood, and for two, I am also worried he'll fall into the same trick of "bash Drumpf for humor" that only really worked half the time last year. If he can stick to what he's strong with, he'll do fine, but I'm simply afraid that he won't. Lead Actor The nominees are... *Timothee Chalamet as "Elio Perlman" - Call Me By Your Name *Daniel Day-Lewis as "Reynolds Woodcock" - Phantom Thread *Daniel Kaluuya as "Chris Washington" - Get Out *Gary Oldman as "Winston Churchill" - Darkest Hour *Denzel Washington as "Roman J. Israel" - Roman J. Israel, Esq. '' Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction': The surprising support for ''Phantom Thread ''does give some support for Day-Lewis, who many say astounds in his final performance of his career, while Timothee Chalamet has kept up precursor heat burning since the beginning of the season with key wins in NYFCC and LAFCA. But ultimately, '''Gary Oldman '''remains the tentative frontrunner, with both the campaign and the quality going for him. He's got SAG, Critics Choice, and most importantly Golden Globe (that's a first), an organization that notoriously doesn't like him and still yields to his performance. *'Preference': While I enjoy the subtlety of both Chalamet and Kaluuya, '''Gary Oldman '''has deserved all the credit and accolades he's earned this year. Not only does he absolutely dissolve his persona and allows Churchill to takeover, but he magnetizes every breathe of air around him to dominate the film and exhilerate as he takes apart the myth of the man. *'Snubbed': Criminaly underrated overall, the film ''Last Flag Flying ''featured one of the best performances of the year in '''Steve Carell', who throws aside every preconceived notion about him and instead finds the soul of broken shell of a veteran. It demands respect and solidarity with armed forces, and the fact that he might've even gotten a nomination if he just sacrificed to category fraud and campaigned in Supporting hurts all the worse. Integrity doesn't buy awards, but it does get respect. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': I think this is entirely a two-horse race between Oldman and Day-Lewis, and while part of me wants to go with the famed "he who wins the SAG wins the Oscar" rule, I think the Oscars will go nostalgic and give Daniel Day-Lewis a historic 4th Oscar as a final parting gift to an absolute cinematic legend. *'Preference': While part of me wants to honor the understated excellence of Kaluuya, who grounds Get Out as a perfect everyman, I think Gary Oldman amazing disappearance into the role of Winston Churchill should be commended. *'Snubbed': While part of me wanted to give it James Franco for perfectly capturing the essence of Tommy Wiseau, I know deep-down that I have to give it to Hugh Jackman. Leaving you with a lump in your throat, Jackman's final performance as Wolverine is deeply mesmerizing as he takes the iconic character to crushing lows without losing his bitter soul. (Plus, imagine how perfect the burial by the lake scene would be as an Oscar reel.) Lead Actress The nominees are... *Sally Hawkins as "Elisa Esposito" - The Shape of Water *Frances McDormand as "Mildred Hayes" - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri '' *Margot Robbie as "Tonya Harding" - ''I, Tonya '' *Saoirse Ronan as "Christine "Lady Bird" McPherson" *Meryl Streep as "Katherine Grahame" - ''The Post Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction': With SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice wins, plus a BAFTA nomination, Frances McDormand 'is looking like a comfortable winner. Although there's a nagging sensation that Hawkins could easily upset, with holding more critics awards than McDormand factoring together with a small degree of overdue clout, it's hard to deny McDormand is the safe bet. *'Preference: As much as I love the absolute fireball performance of McDormand, as well as initially placing her as the best on my personal ballot, I've changed my mind and am giving into the absolute masterpiece Margot Robbie 'delivered in her gleeful reconstruction of the biopic performance. She's vivacious, she's powerful, but most importantly she's just so entertaining. *'Snubbed: The perfect amount of over-the-top satirical insanity and genuine, fragile human idiosyncracies, I absolutely fell in love with Aubrey Plaza 'in ''Ingrid Goes West. In what is undeniably the most underrated performance of the year, Plaza stands out as she delivers the very best work of her career, Beast's Thoughts *'''Prediction: Yeah, I really don't think there's a chance of stopping Frances McDormand. She's got all the precursors, plus she tends to give really memorable speeches, which Oscar voters are well-known to be fans of. I just don't see anyone stopping her here. Chalk this one as the safest bet of any of these categories. *'Preference': I know people love the big and flashy performances, but Sally Hawkins does so, so much with so little in The Shape of Water, giving a character who can't speak an incredibly wide range of emotions with simply facial expressions and body language, that it would be a total delight if she was able to pull an upset. *'Snubbed': Beautiful, badass, and an immediately iconic character and role model, how cool would it have been to see Gal Gadot overcome the Oscars superhero bias and take a spot on this list? Supporting Actor The nominees are... *Willem Dafoe as "Bobby Hicks" - The Florida Project *Woody Harrelson as "Chief Willoughby" - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri *Richard Jenkins as "Giles" - The Shape of Water *Sam Rockwell as "Officer Dixon" - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri '' *Christopher Plummer as "J. Paul Getty" - ''All the Money in the World '' Cfp's Thoughts *'Predictions': Honestly, the only competition this year is from Willem Dafoe, and that's only because he's got overdue clout. Nothing's stopping '''Sam Rockwell '''from taking it this year; he's overdue, he's gotten every major award, and he's in a Best Picture frontrunner. Not much else to say, really. *'Preference': Although Sam Rockwell is earning the lion's share of praise for his admittedly fantastic bumbling officer, he's not the best supporting man in ''Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; that belongs to Woody Harrelson. He's delivered a sublime, subtle performance, holding back as the straight man of the film and delivering on every emotional note. *'Snubbed': Any of the several men from the Netflix masterpiece Mudbound ''could've gotten in, with Jason Mitchell and Jonathan Banks getting the runner-ups, but '''Garrett Hedlund '''is by far the best in show. He's one of the louder performances of the year, but it's the silent moments of nuance hidden by his drunken stupor and antics that show the inner soul of his character. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': I've been waiting several weeks to say this, so here goes: #RockwellIsALockwell. I really don't see anyone beating '''Sam Rockwell' on his way to a win here, as he's got all the awards already on top of being an immensely well-liked character actor finally given a big shot a la JK Simmons. *'Preference': As it always has been, this category is incredibly strong, with each of these performances brilliant in their own right. If I had to pick a favorite, I think I'd narrowly have to swing with Woody Harrelson, who gives Three Billboards a much-needed straight man, but with a surprising soft side that enables him to step up as the moral heart of the film when he's needed most. *'Snubbed': Again, so many to pick from, and I've flip-flopped on who could've muscled out Plummer's spot, but I've decided to go a little outside of the box by saying James McAvoy. Basically playing several characters at once, McAvoy gives a brilliant, twisted turn as a schizophrenic kidnapper in the January gem Split that overcomes the silliness of Shaymalan's script to craft a terrifying but utterly pitiable villain. Best Supporting Actress The nominees are... *Mary J. Blige as "Florence Jackson" - Mudbound *Allison Janney as "LaVona Golden" - I, Tonya '' *Lesley Manville as "Cyril Woodcock" - ''Phantom Thread '' *Laurie Metcalf as "Marion McPherson" - ''Lady Bird *Octavia Spencer as "Zelda Fuller" - The Shape of Water Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction': Despite heavy precursor love for Metcalf, this award is all but locked for Allison Janney, who's deservedly getting huge amount of love. She's good in the role, she's picked up all the major awards, and she's playing a traditional Oscar bait like Metcalf but a darkly sarcastic and chainsmoking twist. *'Preference': Something of a anomaly of the circuit this year has been Mary J. Blige 'and her fantastic portrayal of a mother that soars above Metcalf and Janney's work. Second in show only to the previously mentioned Garrett Hedlund, she's phenomenal as a powerful, stoic maternal figure that draws the viewers into the storybook world of ''Mudbound. *'''Snubbed: I've made a lot of comparisons to this year as 2015 part 2; just like then, the very best performance of the year was given by a child. Dafne Keen 'absolutely soars in ''Logan, not only capturing the innocence and hidden heart of a child like most great child performances but rips to shreds (literally and figuratively) everyone around her in a dynamic and demosling physical performance. More savage animal than child, she's the pure embodiment of awesome power and subtle emotion. Beast's Thoughts *'''Prediction: Man, going into these predictions I really thought they'd be harder to predict. Oh well. Anyway, Allison Janney should lock this one up without too much difficulty. The performance is well-liked by precursors and just edgy enough to subvert the usual Oscar bait stuff. *'Preference': As a flipside to Janney, Laurie Metcalf's performance is Lady Bird is sweet and subdued, often showcasing the very real trials and tribulations of a mother without ever feeling over the top. *'Snubbed': Ironically, I narrowly swerved away from picking Stewart last category to avoid a Logan sweep of this column, but then Cfp stole my pick for Dafne Keen. My back-up is another mother, with Holly Hunter in The Big Sick working as a perfect scene-stealer and passionate foil to the laid-back work of both Kumail Nanjiani and Ray Romano while still grounding the film with an emotional center. Best Director The nominees are... *Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread *Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water *Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird *Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk *Jordan Peele - Get Out Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' With the DGA under his belt, an overdue factor, and a fantastic campaign so far, Guillermo del Toro is the easiest lock of the night outside of Coco getting Animated Feature. Not much to say, since he's a pretty deserving winner. *'Preference:' That being said, while Del Toro is the definite second spot and he does phenomenal work drawing out a love of filmmaking and the magic movies, it doesn't top what Greta Gerwig did with Lady Bird. She absolutely floored me, with every single choice she made about what to show, what not to show, what music to play- every decision she makes is felt, and pays off on every emotional front. *'Snubbed:' Although Scott Cooper is the second spot on my ballot this year, I can't help but bemoan the bias that animated films go against every year, especially when phenomenal work by Lee Unkrich gets ignored in his magnum opus of Coco. It's astounding work, with an inherent love for Latino culture mixed with an inviting and familial atmosphere that shows that these films are not just for children. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': With every accolade under his belt and a storied career as an underdog, Guillermo Del Toro has got this one in the bag, and it's frankly overdue at this point. *'Preference': While this is an exceptional category, I'm going to stick with the frontrunner. Guillermo Del Toro's love of film drips from every scene of The Shape of Water, and his intense eye for detail and visual skill left me in awe of the entire world he had crafted. It will be a total delight when he takes the stage, even if he should have done it with Pan's Labryinth eleven years ago. *'Snubbed': In spite of a lack of a Best Picture nomination, it's hard to argue Blade Runner 2049 wasn't one of the most dazzling and breathtaking films of the year. And that's all due to the craftmanship Denis Villeneuve, who worked tirelessly to recreate and add his own spin on the world Ridley Scott made so long ago. It would've been nice to have seen an emulation of the BAFTAs here. Best Picture The nominees are... *''Call Me By Your Name'' (Sony Pictures Classics) - Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, and Marco Morabito *''Darkest Hour'' - (Focus Features) - Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten, and Douglas Urbanski *''Dunkirk'' (Warner Bros. Pictures) - Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan *''Get Out'' (Universal Pictures) - Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., and Jordan Peele *''Lady Bird'' (A24) - Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, and Evelyn O'Neill *''Phantom Thread'' (Focus Features) - JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison and Daniel Lupi *''The Post'' (20th Century Fox) - Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, and Kristie Macosko Krieger *''The Shape of Water'' (Fox Searchlight Pictures) - Guillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale *''Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri'' (Fox Searchlight Pictures) - Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, and Martin McDonagh CMBYN Poster.jpg|"Is it better to speak or die?" Darkest Hour.jpg|"Never give up. Never give in." Dunkirk Poster.jpg|"Hope is a weapon. Survival is victory." Get Out Poster.jpg|"Just because you're invited doesn't mean you're welcome." Lady Bird Poster.jpg|"Time to fly." Phantom Thread Poster.jpg Post Poster.jpg|" Shape of Water.jpg|"A Fairy Tale for Troubled Times" Three Billboards Poster.jpg Cfp's Thoughts *'Predictions:' Through random process of elimination alone, the final prediction for the winner of the big prize goes to The Shape of Water. With Lady Bird pulling donuts left and right, Get Out not getting the necessary push in time, and every other film just happy to be nominated, only del Toro's creature feature and the incredibly divisive Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri remain to fight it out. The latter is equally maligned as it is beloved, so despite missing out the key SAG Ensemble nod I'll bet the creature feature over the black comedy. *'Preference:' As the runner-up best film of the year and an absolutely magnetizing love letter to cinema, I proudly declare my prediction The Shape of Water is also my personal choice this year. Moving, thematic, and downright loveable, the love for movie magic and the call for humanity to embrace their differences is the kind of filmmaking I support wholeheartedly. *'Snubbed:' Films that are created on a digital screen are just as powerful, emotional, and effectively created as the ones filmed on cameras, and no film proves that statement truer than Coco. As the finest effort delivered by Pixar yet, this film absolutely floors any person who gets to experience it. Both a celebration of Latin culture and a welcoming embrace for outsiders to join them, it is this kind of filmmaking that is both necessary in the industry and reflects the greatest lessons that the world needs to hear right now. The bias against animated films must end, and Coco should've been the one to do it. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': Honestly, this is the most difficult to predict category, with at least a few of the nominees having something going for it. Lady Bird and Get Out both have substantial indie love and could prove powerful choices in a year where race and women's rights were often the topic of conversation, while Three Billboards has substantial support from precursors despite recent backlash. But none of these films have built the raw momentum quite like The Shape of Water. Despite the film's "monster movie" status, it's also a deeply moving love letter to film, which the Academy is the famous for loving, plus a chance to honor the snubbed career of Del Toro. *'Preference': To be honest, most of these films could win and I'd be totally satisfied, and The Shape of Water is one of the strongest winners in some time, but has any film held the national conversation quite like Get Out has? Funny, tense, and brilliant, a win for the film would be the ultimate gratification to the little indie horror movie that could. *'Snubbed': Once again, the Academy has largely ignored one of the greatest comic book films of all time. While a screenplay nod was a nice surprise, Logan deserved so much more for being a film that combined genres to bring an end to one of the most iconic film performances of all time. Well-acted, well-directed, and as much a love letter to westerns and noir films as Shape of Water was to old-school cinema, the exclusion of Logan hurts. Category:Blog posts Category:Predictions